Typhoon/Hurricane Dynamics and Prediction (2nd Edition)

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Atmospheric Techniques, Instruments, and Modeling".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 27 August 2024 | Viewed by 1696

Special Issue Editors


E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan City 320, Taiwan
Interests: mesoscale modeling; typhoon dynamics and modeling; GNSS RO data assimilation
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
GPS Science and Application Research Center, National Central University, Taoyuan City 320, Taiwan
Interests: GNSS RO; data assimilation; numerical model prediction on severe weather
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan City 320, Taiwan
Interests: data assimilation; radar meteorology; severe weather; quantitative precipitation forecast
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

This Special Issue is the second edition in a series of publications dedicated to “Typhoon/Hurricane Dynamics and Prediction” (https://www.mdpi.com/journal/atmosphere/special_issues/typhoon_hurricane_prediction).

The advancement of data assimilation has greatly enhanced the forecast skill of tropical cyclone (TC) prediction, mostly relying on the effective assimilation of remote sensing data. In particular, the recent attention paid to radar data assimilation, either regarding the measurement type (polarimetric or non-polarimetric) or assimilation strategy, has helped to further enhance our understanding of the internal structures of TCs, as well as the convective processes intimately influencing the predictability and sensitivity of specific TC forecasts. On the other hand, satellite data that provide significant coverage over entire TCs and their surrounding environment offer good prospects for the improvement of the synoptic-scale condition that largely controls the track of TCs over vast oceans. With a global coverage, the vertical high-resolution soundings of GNSS radio occultation (RO) measurements are able to elucidate the dim area in which few observations associated with the large-scale atmosphere of embedded TCs are retrievable. Recent data assimilation with GNSS RO observations (e.g., from FORMOTSAT-3 and FORMOSAT-7) has proven very encouraging, and is able to better predict the track and intensity of TCs. The multi-utilization of various remote sensing data, including satellite radiance data, has been essential to determining the optimal impacts of observations on typhoon/hurricane forecasts. However, these are not being adequately pursued at present due to limited resources and great challenges arising in the application of advanced data assimilation techniques employing ensemble Kalman filters and variational methods in various hybrid systems. However, we are anticipating great improvements in forecast skill due to recent advancements in data assimilation, and therefore a better in-depth understanding of typhoon/hurricane dynamics. We especially encourage potential contributors to present works addressing model initialization near topographical areas in which convective processes associated with TCs are significantly modulated, and thus those that increase the dynamic complexity of TC track behaviors. 

Dr. Ching-Yuang Huang
Dr. Shu-Ya Chen
Dr. Kao-Shen Chung
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • tropical cyclone
  • data assimilation
  • remote sensing
  • satellite radiance data
  • radar data
  • GNSS radio occultation
  • ensemble Kalman filters
  • hybrid systems

Published Papers (2 papers)

Order results
Result details
Select all
Export citation of selected articles as:

Research

23 pages, 19165 KiB  
Article
High Temporal Resolution Analyses with GOES-16 Atmospheric Motion Vectors of the Non-Rapid Intensification of Atlantic Pre-Bonnie (2022)
by Russell L. Elsberry, Joel W. Feldmeier, Hway-Jen Chen, Christopher S. Velden and Hsiao-Chung Tsai
Atmosphere 2024, 15(3), 353; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15030353 - 14 Mar 2024
Viewed by 560
Abstract
Four-dimensional COAMPS Dynamic Initialization (FCDI) analyses that include high-temporal- and high-spatial-resolution GOES-16 Atmospheric Motion Vector (AMV) datasets are utilized to understand and predict why pre-Bonnie (2022), designated as a Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC 2), did not undergo rapid intensification (RI) while passing along [...] Read more.
Four-dimensional COAMPS Dynamic Initialization (FCDI) analyses that include high-temporal- and high-spatial-resolution GOES-16 Atmospheric Motion Vector (AMV) datasets are utilized to understand and predict why pre-Bonnie (2022), designated as a Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC 2), did not undergo rapid intensification (RI) while passing along the coast of Venezuela during late June 2022. A tropical cyclone lifecycle-prediction model based on the ECMWF ensemble indicated that no RI should be expected for the trifurcation southern cluster of tracks along the coast, similar to PTC 2, but would likely occur for two other track clusters farther offshore. Displaying the GOES-16 mesodomain AMVs in 50 mb layers illustrates the outflow burst domes associated with the PTC 2 circulation well. The FCDI analyses forced by thousands of AMVs every 15 min document the 13,910 m wind-mass field responses and the subsequent 540 m wind field adjustments in the PTC 2 circulation. The long-lasting outflow burst domes on both 28 June and 29 June were mainly to the north of PTC 2, and the 13,910 m FCDI analyses document conditions over the PTC 2 which were not favorable for an RI event. The 540 m FCDI analyses demonstrated that the intensity was likely less than 35 kt because of the PTC 2 interactions with land. The FCDI analyses and two model forecasts initialized from the FCDI analyses document how the PTC 2 moved offshore to become Tropical Storm Bonnie; however, they reveal another cyclonic circulation farther west along the Venezuelan coast that has some of the characteristics of a Caribbean False Alarm event. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Typhoon/Hurricane Dynamics and Prediction (2nd Edition))
Show Figures

Figure 1

27 pages, 15488 KiB  
Article
Investigation on the Intensification of Supertyphoon Yutu (2018) Based on Symmetric Vortex Dynamics Using the Sawyer–Eliassen Equation
by Thi-Chinh Nguyen and Ching-Yuang Huang
Atmosphere 2023, 14(11), 1683; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14111683 - 13 Nov 2023
Viewed by 820
Abstract
This study used the revised Sawyer–Eliassen (SE) equation, taking the relaxed thermal wind balance into account, to chart the development of Supertyphoon Yutu (2018) based on symmetric vortex dynamics. The mean vortex and associated forcing sources for solving the SE equation were taken [...] Read more.
This study used the revised Sawyer–Eliassen (SE) equation, taking the relaxed thermal wind balance into account, to chart the development of Supertyphoon Yutu (2018) based on symmetric vortex dynamics. The mean vortex and associated forcing sources for solving the SE equation were taken from three-dimensional numerical simulations using the ocean-coupled HWRF. The SE solutions indicate that the induced transverse circulation is sensitive to the static stability of the mean vortex, which can be significantly underestimated when the static instability is greatly increased. The impacts on the SE solution, caused by the agradient imbalance and nonhydrostatics, were not significantly large in the troposphere. Moreover, the impact of numerical residue in the tangential wind tendency equation mainly occurred in the upper troposphere, below a height of 18 km, and near the lower eyewall. Furthermore, the structural misplaced change in the forcing source may have caused a more disorganized induced transverse circulation, whereas the collocated intensity change only resulted in a proportional enhancement during the same phase. During the rapid intensification of Yutu, the tangential-wind velocity tendency, caused by the revised SE solution, was close to the actual nonlinear tendency; however, the lowest boundary layer exhibited stronger turbulent friction. The mid- to upper-tropospheric vortex intensification inside of the eyewall and outside of the eyewall can mainly be attributed to the mean and asymmetric horizontal advection and vertical advection, respectively; conversely, most of the spindown that occurred in the eyewall was caused by the mean and asymmetric horizontal advection. At lower levels, the vortex intensification near the inner eyewall was mainly induced by the effects of asymmetric vertical advection. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Typhoon/Hurricane Dynamics and Prediction (2nd Edition))
Show Figures

Figure 1

Back to TopTop