Advances in Tropical Cyclone Prediction: Observation, Simulation, and Verification
A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".
Deadline for manuscript submissions: 10 July 2024 | Viewed by 7107
Special Issue Editors
Interests: tropical cyclones, verification, testing and evaluation, physical parameterization
Interests: air-sea interaction; turbulence; boundary layer; tropical cyclones
Interests: tropical cyclone data assimilation and forecast system development and operational transition; atmosphere-wave-ocean interaction and coupling; marine meteorology; surface wave dynamics and modeling; regional climate downscaling
Special Issue Information
Dear Colleagues,
Improved tropical cyclone (TC) predictions have come a long way during the past two decades. The advancement of high-performance computing, physical parameterizations, and data assimilation (DA) techniques has contributed significantly to the understanding of physical processes and led to improvements in TC prediction. Recent cyclones Harvey (2017), Irma (2017), Hato (2017), Debbie (2017), Michael (2018), Kong-rey (2018), Goni (2020), Amphan (2020), and Tauktae (2021), among others, have wreaked havoc, causing fatalities and property damage. Accurate forecasts of these extreme events underscore the need for better understanding of physical processes, especially for rapid intensification. The official forecasts rely on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models as well as statistical models (including single or multimodal ensembles). The success of a TC forecast entails prediction of the large-scale as well as storm-scale environment, hence requiring rigorous testing, evaluation, diagnostic studies, and tuning of the forecast models based on field experiments.
In this Special Issue, authors are invited to submit original and review articles to advance the understanding and prediction of TCs, including field experiments, DA, and their impacts on TC prediction, advances in physical parameterizations, advancement of statistical models, and verification and validation of TC products against observations.
Dr. Mrinal K. Biswas
Dr. Jun A. Zhang
Dr. Bin Liu
Guest Editors
Manuscript Submission Information
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Keywords
- tropical cyclones
- intensity
- verification
- physical parameterization
- data assimilation
- modeling
- field experiments
Planned Papers
The below list represents only planned manuscripts. Some of these manuscripts have not been received by the Editorial Office yet. Papers submitted to MDPI journals are subject to peer-review.
Title: Reconstructed Phase Space Diagnostic of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin.
Sarah Weaver
Abstract: Tropical cyclone prediction is often described as chaotic and unpredictable on time scales that cross into stochastic regimes. Predictions are bounded by depth of understanding and the limitations of the physical dynamics that govern them. Slight changes in global atmospheric and oceanic conditions may significantly alter tropical storm genesis. The purpose of this paper is to characterize the storm behavior of the North Atlantic basin through both a diagnostic approach and prognostic test. Based on the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the North Atlantic basin, cyclone activity can be described as predictable and non-deterministic. Insight and understanding to this coupled non-linear system through an analysis of auto-mutual correlation, embedded dimension, Lyapunov exponent, reconstructed phase space, and a prognostic test will provide critical information for future predicative analysis.