Tropical Cyclones: Observations and Prediction

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 24 May 2024 | Viewed by 5187

Special Issue Editors

Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai 519082, China
Interests: tropical cyclone; heat flux; forecasting; atmospheric modelling
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
Interests: tropical meteorology; air–sea interaction; weather and climate extremes; mesoscale vortex
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
Interests: tropical cyclones; remote sensing; cloud microphysics; atmospheric physics; precipitation vertical structure
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
Interests: precipitation; atmospheric radiation; cloud; life cycle
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Guangzhou 510000, China
Interests: precipitation; tropical cyclone; sea fog; atmospheric modelling

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Tropical cyclones (TCs), which develop over warm tropical oceans, are among the most destructive natural phenomena. The associated strong winds and heavy precipitation concentrated around the TC center can cause serious casualties and huge economic losses in coastal areas, especially where such systems make landfall. Therefore, the forecasting of TCs has been an area of active scientific research for decades. However, the prediction of TCs remains difficult in the fields of research and operational forecasting because the mechanism of TCs is not fully understood. One of the reasons is that high-quality observation data have not been fully analyzed. In particular, in air–sea fluxes, severe convection around the eyewall plays an important role in TC intensification, which should be attributed to TC dynamics. Therefore, observational and numerical research on TC dynamics is crucial for TC forecasting.

For this Special Issue, we invite original and review articles to advance our understanding of TC observation and prediction; topics of interest for this Special Issue include, but are not limited to, the following:

(1) New developments in observation and modelling; (2) new developments in theory and forecasting;  (3) air–sea interactions and cloud microphysics in TCs; (4) variation in TC tracking; (5) tropical cyclogenesis; (6) life cycle of TCs; (7) substructure and asymmetry of the eyewall; (8) rainbands and eyewall preplacement.

Dr. Shumin Chen
Prof. Dr. Weibiao Li
Dr. Yilun Chen
Dr. Aoqi Zhang
Dr. Mingsen Zhou
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • tropical cyclone
  • precipitation
  • atmospheric modelling
  • atmospheric physics
  • atmospheric radiation
  • cloud
  • sea fog

Published Papers (6 papers)

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Research

15 pages, 5869 KiB  
Article
On the Size Discrepancies between Datasets from China Meteorological Administration and Joint Typhoon Warning Center for the Northwestern Pacific Tropical Cyclones
by Jinhe Li, Yubin Li and Jie Tang
Atmosphere 2024, 15(3), 355; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15030355 - 14 Mar 2024
Viewed by 418
Abstract
This study analyzes the Northwestern Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) size difference between the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) dataset and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) dataset. The TC size is defined by the near-surface 34-knot wind radius (R34). Although there is a high [...] Read more.
This study analyzes the Northwestern Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) size difference between the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) dataset and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) dataset. The TC size is defined by the near-surface 34-knot wind radius (R34). Although there is a high correlation (correlation coefficient of 0.71) between CMA and JTWC R34 values, significant discrepancies are still found between them. The JTWC tends to report larger R34 values than the CMA for large-sized TCs, while the trend is reversed for compact TCs. Despite spatial distribution discrepancies, both datasets exhibit significant similarity (spatial correlation coefficient of 0.61), particularly in latitudinal distribution; higher R34 values are observed near 25° N. An investigation of key parameters affecting R34 estimations shows that the discrepancies in R34 values between the two agencies’ estimates of TC size are primarily influenced by the size itself and latitude. There is a high correlation between R34 difference and R34 values, with a high correlation of up to 0.58 with the JTWC’s R34 values. There is also a significant correlation between R34 difference and latitude, with a correlation coefficient of 0.26 in both the CMA and JTWC datasets. Case studies of Typhoons “Danas” and “Maysak” confirm distinct characteristics in R34 estimations during different development stages, with the JTWC capturing TC intensification better, while the CMA underestimates TC size during rapid growth phases. During the weakening stage of the TC, both agencies accurately estimate the R34 values. These findings contribute valuable insights into the discrepancies and characteristics of R34 datasets, informing the selection and utilization of data for typhoon research and forecasting. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones: Observations and Prediction)
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17 pages, 4448 KiB  
Article
The Impact of an Oceanic Mesoscale Anticyclonic Eddy in the East China Sea on the Tropical Cyclone Yagi (2018)
by Jianxiang Sun, Jia Si, Junhua Cai, Guangcan Chen, Kaiyue Wang, Huan Li and Dongren Yang
Atmosphere 2024, 15(1), 81; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15010081 - 09 Jan 2024
Viewed by 697
Abstract
In August 2018, tropical cyclone (TC) Yagi rapidly intensified as it passed over an oceanic mesoscale anticyclonic eddy (eddy) in the East China Sea, increasing in TC intensity from a tropical storm to a severe tropical storm. The maximum surface wind speed increase [...] Read more.
In August 2018, tropical cyclone (TC) Yagi rapidly intensified as it passed over an oceanic mesoscale anticyclonic eddy (eddy) in the East China Sea, increasing in TC intensity from a tropical storm to a severe tropical storm. The maximum surface wind speed increase (minimum sea level pressure decrease) of Yagi over sea surface temperature (SST) warm anomalies caused by the eddy accounted for 66.7% (36.4%) of the whole case. Regional atmospheric model experiments are conducted to aid the interpretations of the case of Yagi intensifying over the eddy. Model results indicate that the SST warm anomalies caused by the eddy increase and concentrate the heat flux transported from the ocean to the atmosphere, and the upper air warms up, which is conducive to the development of convection. As a result, the contribution of the eddy to TC enhancement is over 20% in the period over the eddy and the precipitation is more concentrated at the TC center. The model further showed that the eddy affects the TC, resulting in more favorable dynamic and thermal conditions around the TC after landfall for the formations of TC tornadoes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones: Observations and Prediction)
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18 pages, 3755 KiB  
Article
The Heat Budget of the Tropical Pacific Mixed Layer during Two Types of El Niño Based on Reanalysis and Global Climate Model Data
by Alexander Osipov and Daria Gushchina
Atmosphere 2024, 15(1), 47; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15010047 - 30 Dec 2023
Viewed by 722
Abstract
The heat budget of the equatorial Pacific mixed layer during El Niño formation was studied based on reanalysis (GLORYS2V4) and model data for the modern climate. The focus of the study is on the so-called El Niño diversity, i.e., the existence of different [...] Read more.
The heat budget of the equatorial Pacific mixed layer during El Niño formation was studied based on reanalysis (GLORYS2V4) and model data for the modern climate. The focus of the study is on the so-called El Niño diversity, i.e., the existence of different types of events that are characterized by different locations and intensities, as well as significantly different teleconnection all around the world. The analysis of the processes that participate in the formation of different El Niño types may serve for a better understanding of the El Niño dynamic and contribute to improving its forecast. Two classifications, based on the location and intensity of the events, were considered: strong/moderate and Eastern Pacific (EP)/Central Pacific (CP). The analysis did not reveal a significant difference in the heat budget of the mixed layer between strong and EP El Niño events, as well as between moderate and CP events. The major difference in the generation mechanism of strong (EP) and moderate (CP) El Niño events consists of the magnitude of heating produced by ocean heat budget components with higher heating rates for strong (EP) events. The evolution of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) is governed primarily by oceanic advection. The vertical advection (due to the thermocline feedback) is the main contributor to SSTA growth in the eastern Pacific regardless of El Niño’s type. In the Central Pacific, horizontal advection is more important than vertical one, with a stronger impact of meridional processes for both strong and moderate regimes. Furthermore, the evaluation of the CMIP5 model’s skill in the simulation of the processes responsible for the formation of different El Niño types was carried out. The analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer in the CMIP5 ensemble demonstrated that the most successful models are CCSM4, CESM1-BGC, CMCC-CMS, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M, and IPSL-CM5B-LR. They are capable of reproducing the most important contribution of the advection terms in the SSTA tendency, keeping the major role of the thermocline feedback (and vertical advection) in the eastern Pacific, and do not overestimate the contribution of zonal advective feedback. These models are recommended to be used for the analysis of El Niño mechanism modification in the future climate. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones: Observations and Prediction)
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18 pages, 8777 KiB  
Communication
Super Typhoon Saola (2023) over the Northern Part of the South China Sea—Aircraft Data Analysis
by Junyi He, Pak Wai Chan, Ying Wa Chan and Ping Cheung
Atmosphere 2023, 14(11), 1595; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14111595 - 25 Oct 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1075
Abstract
In situ aircraft observations in typhoons have been scarce. This paper documents and analyses the aircraft and dropsonde data collected in Super Typhoon Saola (2023) over the northern part of the South China Sea. The wind and turbulence structures of the typhoon are [...] Read more.
In situ aircraft observations in typhoons have been scarce. This paper documents and analyses the aircraft and dropsonde data collected in Super Typhoon Saola (2023) over the northern part of the South China Sea. The wind and turbulence structures of the typhoon are investigated. The turbulence intensities are quantified in terms of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and eddy dissipate rate (EDR), and these data are compared with other available estimates of turbulence intensities, such as those based on weather radars, meteorological satellites, and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. It is found that the TKE and EDR are closely correlated, and they are consistent with the weather radar/satellite observations as well as NWP-based outputs. Furthermore, the boundary layer inflow, vertical wind profiles, and atmospheric stability are analysed based on the dropsonde observations. The analysed results would advance the understanding of typhoon structures and offer references for the validation of remote-sensing observations and NWP models. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones: Observations and Prediction)
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17 pages, 10282 KiB  
Article
Assessment of Different Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes in Numerical Simulations of Typhoon Nida (2016) Based on Aircraft Observations
by Chaoyong Tu, Zhongkuo Zhao, Mingsen Zhou, Weibiao Li, Min Xie, Changjiang Ni and Shumin Chen
Atmosphere 2023, 14(9), 1403; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14091403 - 06 Sep 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 677
Abstract
This study aimed to find a boundary layer parameter scheme suitable for typhoons in the South China Sea based on a comparison with the aircraft detection data from Typhoon Nida (2016). We simulated the typhoon boundary layer wind field in different boundary layer [...] Read more.
This study aimed to find a boundary layer parameter scheme suitable for typhoons in the South China Sea based on a comparison with the aircraft detection data from Typhoon Nida (2016). We simulated the typhoon boundary layer wind field in different boundary layer schemes, such as YSU, MYNN, BouLac, and Shin-Hong, and with a no-boundary-layer parametrization scheme. The results were as follows: (1) In the eye and eyewall area, the YSU and MYNN schemes could better simulate the east–west wind characteristics and the YSU scheme could also simulate the jet current of the southerly wind component in the boundary layer in the eyewall. (2) Compared with the eye area, the easterly wind in the eyewall area was strong, and the overall vertical movement was weak. (3) The YSU and MYNN schemes had similar turbulent kinetic energies that were also similar to those from aircraft observations; the turbulent kinetic energy in the simulations of several schemes in the boundary layer was evidently lower than that in the aircraft observations. Thus, the MYNN and the YSU schemes yielded better simulations for the eye and eyewall areas, and the YSU scheme was more similar to the boundary layer observations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones: Observations and Prediction)
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17 pages, 11802 KiB  
Article
An Observational Study of Typhoon Talim over the Northern Part of the South China Sea in July 2023
by Junyi He, Qiusheng Li, Pak-Wai Chan, Chun-Wing Choy, Betty Mak, Ching-Chi Lam and Hong-Yan Luo
Atmosphere 2023, 14(9), 1340; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14091340 - 25 Aug 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 861
Abstract
Extensive surface and upper air measurements of a typhoon over the northern part of the South China Sea, namely, Typhoon Talim in July 2023, are documented and analysed in this paper. A number of features have been observed from the upper air measurements. [...] Read more.
Extensive surface and upper air measurements of a typhoon over the northern part of the South China Sea, namely, Typhoon Talim in July 2023, are documented and analysed in this paper. A number of features have been observed from the upper air measurements. First, the log law and the power law were found to be appropriate in fitting the wind profiles of the typhoon in the first 1000 m or so above the sea surface. Second, a low-level jet with the height of the maximum wind speed of around 1000 m was observed in the lower troposphere from the observations of the radar wind profilers. This paper is also novel from the perspectives that the vertical wind profile from a Doppler LIDAR on an offshore platform over the northern part of the South China sea and ocean radar data are used to analyse the surface wind observations of a typhoon in the region. The results of this paper would be useful in understanding the structure of tropical cyclones, e.g., in wind engineering applications. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones: Observations and Prediction)
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