Prediction and Modeling of Extreme Weather Events

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 31 August 2024 | Viewed by 2737

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Post-Graduate Program in Civil Engineering-Management, Production and Environment, Federal Fluminense University-UFF, Niterói, Rio de Janeiro 24210-240, Brazil
Interests: extreme events; atmospheric modeling; hydrological modeling; energy; climate change

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Guest Editor
Department of Agricultural Engineering and Environment, Federal Fluminense University-UFF, Niterói, Rio de Janeiro 24210-240, Brazil
Interests: hydrological modeling; hydrologic and water resource modeling and simulation

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Extreme events are currently becoming more frequent and more extreme in many regions of the planet. Unfortunately, these events are causing numerous losses of life and property, especially in places where more socioeconomically vulnerable people live, which has awakened interest in the issue of climate justice.

Currently, the countries that are the largest emitters of GHG are also the ones that develop atmospheric general circulation models, used both at the weather and climate scale. However, these models are often neither validated nor adapted to the atmospheric conditions of countries located in the equatorial and subtropical zones of the Southern Hemisphere, for example, countries that have become increasingly vulnerable to extreme events.

Thus, within the idea of climate justice, the proposal would be an edition focused on the application/validation of numerical modeling aimed at extreme events occurring in places whose population presents a high level of socioeconomic vulnerability.

The articles can be both about climatic extremes linked to the occurrence of prolonged droughts, intense precipitation volumes, heat waves, etc., and the prognosis of events on a more regional scale, such as floods, landslides, severe storms, cyclones, etc.

Dr. Marcio Cataldi
Prof. Dr. Franciele Zanandrea
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Keywords

  • climate justice
  • extreme events
  • numerical modeling
  • socioenvironmental vulnerability

Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

22 pages, 5910 KiB  
Article
Simulating Heavy Rainfall Associated with Tropical Cyclones and Atmospheric Disturbances in Thailand Using the Coupled WRF-ROMS Model—Sensitivity Analysis of Microphysics and Cumulus Parameterization Schemes
by Kritanai Torsri, Apiwat Faikrua, Pattarapoom Peangta, Rati Sawangwattanaphaibun, Jakrapop Akaranee and Kanoksri Sarinnapakorn
Atmosphere 2023, 14(10), 1574; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14101574 - 17 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1219
Abstract
Predicting heavy rainfall events associated with Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric disturbances in Thailand remains challenging. This study introduces a novel approach to enhance forecasting precision by utilizing the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Regional Oceanic Model (ROMS), known as WRF-ROMS. [...] Read more.
Predicting heavy rainfall events associated with Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric disturbances in Thailand remains challenging. This study introduces a novel approach to enhance forecasting precision by utilizing the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Regional Oceanic Model (ROMS), known as WRF-ROMS. We aim to identify the optimal combination of microphysics (MP) and cumulus (CU) parameterization schemes. Three CU schemes, namely, Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), Grell 3D Ensemble (G3), and Kain-Fritsch (KF), along with three MP schemes, namely, Eta (ETA), Purdue Lin (LIN), and WRF Single-moment 3-class (WSM3), are selected for the sensitivity analysis. Seven instances of heavy (35.1–90.0 mm) to violent (>90.1 mm) rainfall in Thailand, occurring in 2020 and associated with tropical storms and atmospheric disturbances, are simulated using all possible combinations of the chosen physics schemes. The simulated rain intensities are compared against observations from the National Hydroinformatics Data Center. Performance was assessed using the probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), and critical success index (CSI) metrics. While the models performed well for light (0.1–10.0 mm) to moderate (10.1–35.0 mm) rainfall, forecasting heavy rainfall remained challenging. Certain parameter combinations showed promise, like BMJ and KF with LIN microphysics, but challenges persisted. Analyzing density distribution of daily rainfall, we found effective parameterizations for different sub-regions. Our findings emphasize the importance of tailored parameterizations for accurate rainfall prediction in Thailand. This customization can benefit water resource management, flood control, and disaster preparedness. Further research should expand datasets, focusing on significant heavy rainfall events and considering climate factors, for example, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) for extended-range forecasts, potentially contributing to sub-seasonal and seasonal (S2S) predictions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Prediction and Modeling of Extreme Weather Events)
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41 pages, 10463 KiB  
Article
Evaluation of Extreme Hydroclimatic Trends in River Basins Located in the Northeast and South Regions of Brazil
by Priscila Esposte Coutinho and Marcio Cataldi
Atmosphere 2023, 14(9), 1388; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14091388 - 02 Sep 2023
Viewed by 819
Abstract
Brazil has a large availability of natural resources, and its economy was historically built around their exploitation. Changes in climate trends are already causing several environmental impacts, which affect the economic and social organization of the country. Impacts linked to the hydrological cycle [...] Read more.
Brazil has a large availability of natural resources, and its economy was historically built around their exploitation. Changes in climate trends are already causing several environmental impacts, which affect the economic and social organization of the country. Impacts linked to the hydrological cycle are particularly concerning since water resources are used for electricity production, representing approximately 65% of the Brazilian electricity matrix. This study, therefore, aims to evaluate the extreme hydroclimatic trends of river basins located in the Northeast and South regions of the country. For this purpose, we carried out a flow analysis from 2020 to 2100, considering the precipitation data from the BCC CSM1-1, CCSM4, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M models presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We used the SMAP rainfall-runoff model to obtain future flow projections for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. As a result, we observed a trend toward water loss and the intensification of extreme events, with an increase in variability in both scenarios. We also noted that these climate models have difficulty reproducing the natural variability of southern basins, as parameterization of small-scale atmospheric processes prevents them from correctly projecting the precipitation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Prediction and Modeling of Extreme Weather Events)
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