Natural-Hazards Risk Assessment for Disaster Mitigation

A special issue of Applied Sciences (ISSN 2076-3417). This special issue belongs to the section "Earth Sciences".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 October 2022) | Viewed by 44790

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Guest Editor
Department of Environmental and Prevention Sciences, University of Ferrara, C.so Ercole I d’Este 32, I-44121 Ferrara, Italy
Interests: computational mechanics; finite element methods; virtual element methods; masonry; masonry structures; limit analysis; structural fragility; earthquake engineering
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Guest Editor
Engineering Department, University of Ferrara Via Saragat 1, I-44100 Ferrara, Italy
Interests: solid and structural mechanics

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Guest Editor
Sveučilište u Splitu, Split, Croatia
Interests: theory of structures; computational mechanics; earthquake engineering

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Knowledge and awareness of risks related to natural hazards are essential requirements for the enhancement of the community's resilience to disasters. According to the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, it is crucial to take actions that allow us to anticipate, manage, and mitigate disaster risks in order to more effectively reduce their economic and social impact and protect health, socioeconomic assets, cultural heritage and ecosystems of communities and countries. While the increasing occurrence of disasters related to meteorological hazards, such as floods, storms, and droughts, can be directly attributed to the consequences of climate change, an increase in the number of geophysical disasters, such as those due to earthquakes and tsunamis, is also observed without any evidence of an increment in the frequencies of occurrence of these natural phenomena. Hence, other human-related agents that are responsible for the increment of risk exposure and community vulnerability have to be factored in, such as land misuse in densely populated areas and in coastal zones.

This Special Issue of Applied Sciences addresses concepts, methods, and techniques for the natural hazards risk assessment including, but not limited to, floods, earthquakes and meteotsunamis.

Topics of interest include:

  • Quantitative, semi-quantitative, and qualitative methods for the assessment of risk related to natural hazards;
  • Risk analysis at different scales;
  • Multi-hazard risk assessment techniques;
  • Real-time hazard monitoring and warning systems;
  • Disaster mitigation strategies;
  • Risk management and emergency planning at multiple scales

Dr. Andrea Chiozzi 
Dr. Elena Benvenuti 
Prof. Dr. Željana Nikolić 
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • natural hazards
  • hazard assessment
  • multi-hazard assessment
  • risk analysis
  • risk management
  • disaster mitigation

Published Papers (16 papers)

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Editorial

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4 pages, 193 KiB  
Editorial
Special Issue on Natural Hazards Risk Assessment for Disaster Mitigation
by Željana Nikolić, Elena Benvenuti and Andrea Chiozzi
Appl. Sci. 2023, 13(3), 1940; https://doi.org/10.3390/app13031940 - 02 Feb 2023
Viewed by 1278
Abstract
Knowledge and awareness of the risks generated by natural hazards are essential requirements for the enhancement of communities’ resilience to disasters [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural-Hazards Risk Assessment for Disaster Mitigation)

Research

Jump to: Editorial

22 pages, 22925 KiB  
Article
Methodology for the Assessment of Multi-Hazard Risk in Urban Homogenous Zones
by Nenad Mladineo, Marko Mladineo, Elena Benvenuti, Toni Kekez and Željana Nikolić
Appl. Sci. 2022, 12(24), 12843; https://doi.org/10.3390/app122412843 - 14 Dec 2022
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2843
Abstract
The multi-hazard risk assessment of urban areas represents a comprehensive approach that can be used to reduce, manage and overcome the risks arising from the combination of different natural hazards. This paper presents a methodology for multi-hazard risk assessment based on Spatial Multi-Criteria [...] Read more.
The multi-hazard risk assessment of urban areas represents a comprehensive approach that can be used to reduce, manage and overcome the risks arising from the combination of different natural hazards. This paper presents a methodology for multi-hazard risk assessment based on Spatial Multi-Criteria Decision Making. The PROMETHEE method was used to assess multi-hazard risks caused by seismic, flood and extreme sea waves impact. The methodology is applied for multi-hazard risk evaluation of the urban area of Kaštel Kambelovac, located on the Croatian coast of the Adriatic Sea. The settlement is placed in a zone of high seismic risk with a large number of old stone historical buildings which are vulnerable to the earthquakes. Being located along the low-lying coast, this area is also threatened by floods due to climate change-induced sea level rises. Furthermore, the settlement is exposed to flooding caused by extreme sea waves generated by severe wind. In the present contribution, the multi-hazard risk is assessed for different scenarios and different levels, based on exposure and vulnerability for each of the natural hazards and the influence of additional criteria to the overall risk in homogenous zones. Single-risk analysis has shown that the seismic risk is dominant for the whole pilot area. The results of multi-hazard assessment have shown that in all combinations the highest risk is present in the historical part of Kaštel Kambelovac. This is because the historical part is most exposed to sea floods and extreme waves, as well as due to the fact that a significant number of historical buildings is located in this area. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural-Hazards Risk Assessment for Disaster Mitigation)
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19 pages, 21333 KiB  
Article
Coastal Flooding Assessment Induced by Barometric Pressure, Wind-Generated Waves and Tidal-Induced Oscillations: Kaštela Bay Real-Time Early Warning System Mobile Application
by Željana Nikolić, Veljko Srzić, Ivan Lovrinović, Toni Perković, Petar Šolić and Toni Kekez
Appl. Sci. 2022, 12(24), 12776; https://doi.org/10.3390/app122412776 - 13 Dec 2022
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1100
Abstract
Our work presents a reliable procedure to obtain real-time assessment of the sea water elevation at the Kaštela Bay site to ensure the a priori warning in the case of expected coastal flooding along the site area. In its origin, the presented procedure [...] Read more.
Our work presents a reliable procedure to obtain real-time assessment of the sea water elevation at the Kaštela Bay site to ensure the a priori warning in the case of expected coastal flooding along the site area. In its origin, the presented procedure relies on relevant data sets which are site-specific and locally observed. Observed data sets are used within the procedure to assess sea water surface elevation when induced by barometric pressure changes and wind-generated waves. Tidal-induced changes are introduced into the assessment procedure by a pre-learned algorithm which relies on long-term sea level oscillations from the relevant tidal gauge. Wind-generated wave heights are determined in the near shore area, following the features of the depth and reflection of the shoreline subsections. By coupling three mechanisms, this paper offers a unique real-time procedure to determine the sea water elevation and assess the possibility for coastline structure to be flooded by the sea. Given information is visualized in a form of mobile application that implements the algorithm and allows end users to set the notifications based on the given ruleset. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural-Hazards Risk Assessment for Disaster Mitigation)
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39 pages, 6607 KiB  
Article
A Comparative Study of the Effects of Earthquakes in Different Countries on Target Displacement in Mid-Rise Regular RC Structures
by Ercan Işık, Marijana Hadzima-Nyarko, Hüseyin Bilgin, Naida Ademović, Aydın Büyüksaraç, Ehsan Harirchian, Borko Bulajić, Hayri Baytan Özmen and Seyed Ehsan Aghakouchaki Hosseini
Appl. Sci. 2022, 12(23), 12495; https://doi.org/10.3390/app122312495 - 06 Dec 2022
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 3171
Abstract
Data from past earthquakes is an important tool to reveal the impact of future earthquakes on engineering structures, especially in earthquake-prone regions. These data are important indicators for revealing the seismic loading effects that structures will be exposed to in future earthquakes. Five [...] Read more.
Data from past earthquakes is an important tool to reveal the impact of future earthquakes on engineering structures, especially in earthquake-prone regions. These data are important indicators for revealing the seismic loading effects that structures will be exposed to in future earthquakes. Five different earthquakes from six countries with high seismic risk were selected and were within the scope of this study. The measured peak ground acceleration (PGA) for each earthquake was compared with the suggested PGA for the respective region. Structural analyzes were performed for a reinforced-concrete (RC) building model with four different variables, including the number of storeys, local soil types, building importance class and concrete class. Target displacements specified in the Eurocode-8 were obtained for both the suggested and measured PGA values for each earthquake. The main goal of this study is to reveal whether the proposed and measured PGA values are adequately represented in different countries. We tried to reveal whether the seismic risk was taken into account at a sufficient level. In addition, target displacements have been obtained separately in order to demonstrate whether the measured and suggested PGA values for these countries are adequately represented in structural analysis and evaluations. It was concluded that both seismic risk and target displacements were adequately represented for some earthquakes, while not adequately represented for others. Comments were made about the existing building stock of the countries considering the obtained results. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural-Hazards Risk Assessment for Disaster Mitigation)
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31 pages, 10313 KiB  
Article
Flood Risk Assessment Using GIS-Based Analytical Hierarchy Process in the Municipality of Odiongan, Romblon, Philippines
by Jerome G. Gacu, Cris Edward F. Monjardin, Delia B. Senoro and Fibor J. Tan
Appl. Sci. 2022, 12(19), 9456; https://doi.org/10.3390/app12199456 - 21 Sep 2022
Cited by 11 | Viewed by 10376
Abstract
The archipelagic Romblon province frequently experiences typhoons and heavy rains that causes extreme flooding, this produces particular concern about the severity of damage in the Municipality of Odiongan. Hence, this study aimed to assess the spatial flood risk of Odiongan using the analytical [...] Read more.
The archipelagic Romblon province frequently experiences typhoons and heavy rains that causes extreme flooding, this produces particular concern about the severity of damage in the Municipality of Odiongan. Hence, this study aimed to assess the spatial flood risk of Odiongan using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), considering disaster risk factors with data collected from various government agencies. The study employed the geographic information system (GIS) to illustrate the spatial distribution of flooding in the municipality. Sendai Framework was the basis of risk analysis in this study. The hazard parameters considered were average annual rainfall, elevation, slope, soil type, and flood depth. Population density, land use, and household number were considered parameters for the exposure assessment. Vulnerability assessments considered gender ratio, mean age, average income, number of persons with disabilities, educational attainment, water usage, emergency preparedness, type of structures, and distance to evacuation area as physical, social, and economic factors. Each parameter was compared to one another by pairwise comparison to identify the weights based on experts’ judgment. These weights were then integrated into the flood risk assessment computation. The results led to a flood risk map which recorded nine barangays (small local government units) at high risk of flooding, notably the Poblacion Area. The results of this study will guide local government units in developing prompt flood management programs, appropriate mitigation measures, preparedness, and response and recovery strategies to reduce flood risk and vulnerability to the population of Odiongan. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural-Hazards Risk Assessment for Disaster Mitigation)
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14 pages, 9407 KiB  
Article
A Database for Tsunamis and Meteotsunamis in the Adriatic Sea
by Alessandra Maramai, Beatriz Brizuela and Laura Graziani
Appl. Sci. 2022, 12(11), 5577; https://doi.org/10.3390/app12115577 - 31 May 2022
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2385
Abstract
In the frame of the Interreg Italy-Croatia program, the EU has funded the PMO-GATE project, focusing on the prevention and mitigation of the socioeconomic impact of natural hazards in the Adriatic region. The Database of Adriatic Tsunamis and Meteotsunamis (DAMT) is one of [...] Read more.
In the frame of the Interreg Italy-Croatia program, the EU has funded the PMO-GATE project, focusing on the prevention and mitigation of the socioeconomic impact of natural hazards in the Adriatic region. The Database of Adriatic Tsunamis and Meteotsunamis (DAMT) is one of the deliverables of this project. DAMT is a collection of data documenting both meteotsunami and tsunami effects along the Eastern and Western Adriatic coasts, and it was realized by starting from the available database and catalogues, with the inclusion of new data gained from recent studies, newspapers and websites. For each tsunami and meteotsunami, the database provides an overview of the event and a detailed description of the effects observed at each affected location and gives a picture of the geographical distribution of the effects. The database can be accessed through a GIS WebApp, which allows the user to visualize the georeferenced information on a map. The DAMT WebApp includes three layers: (1) Adriatic Tsunami Sources, (2) Adriatic Tsunami Observation Points and (3) Adriatic Meteotsunamis Observation Points. The database contains 57 observations of tsunami effects related to 27 tsunamis along the Italian, Croatian, Montenegrin and Albanian coasts and 102 observations of meteotsunami effects related to 33 meteotsunamis. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural-Hazards Risk Assessment for Disaster Mitigation)
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14 pages, 3504 KiB  
Article
Shifting of Meteorological to Hydrological Drought Risk at Regional Scale
by Awais Naeem Sarwar, Muhammad Waseem, Muhammad Azam, Adnan Abbas, Ijaz Ahmad, Jae Eun Lee and Faraz ul Haq
Appl. Sci. 2022, 12(11), 5560; https://doi.org/10.3390/app12115560 - 30 May 2022
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 1750
Abstract
The drought along with climate variation has become a serious issue for human society and the ecosystem in the arid region like the Soan basin (the main source of water resources for the capital of Pakistan and the Pothohar arid region). The increasing [...] Read more.
The drought along with climate variation has become a serious issue for human society and the ecosystem in the arid region like the Soan basin (the main source of water resources for the capital of Pakistan and the Pothohar arid region). The increasing concerns about drought in the study area have brought about the necessity of spatiotemporal analysis and assessment of the linkage between different drought types for an early warning system. Hence, the streamflow drought index (SDI) and standard precipitation index (SPI) were used for the analysis of the spatiotemporal variations in hydrological and meteorological drought, respectively. Furthermore, statistical approaches, including regression analysis, trend analysis using Mann Kendall, and moving average, have been used for investigation of the linkage between these drought types, the significance of the variations, and lag time identification, respectively. The overall analysis indicated an increase in the frequency of both hydrological and meteorological droughts during the last three decades. Moreover, a strong linkage between hydrological and meteorological droughts was found; and this relationship varied on the spatiotemporal scale. Significant variations between hydrological and meteorological droughts also resulted during the past three (3) decades. These discrepancies would be because of different onset and termination times and specific anthropogenic activities in the selected basin for the minimization of hydrological drought. Conclusively, the present study contributes to comprehending the linkage between hydrological and meteorological droughts and, thus, could have a practical use for local water resource management practices at the basin scale. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural-Hazards Risk Assessment for Disaster Mitigation)
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12 pages, 6102 KiB  
Article
Analysis of the Seismic Properties for Engineering Purposes of the Shallow Subsurface: Two Case Studies from Italy and Croatia
by Federico Da Col, Flavio Accaino, Gualtiero Böhm and Fabio Meneghini
Appl. Sci. 2022, 12(9), 4535; https://doi.org/10.3390/app12094535 - 29 Apr 2022
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1188
Abstract
We present two case studies of the application of seismic surveys to estimate the elastic properties of soil and rock in the shallow subsurface. The two sites present very different geological characteristics. The first test site is a town on the Croatian coast, [...] Read more.
We present two case studies of the application of seismic surveys to estimate the elastic properties of soil and rock in the shallow subsurface. The two sites present very different geological characteristics. The first test site is a town on the Croatian coast, not far from the city of Split, built on hard rock, where we acquired three seismic lines. The second site is located in the outskirts of the city of Ferrara, in Italy, in an alluvial plain, where two lines were acquired. In both sites, for detailed characterization, we acquired surface-, compressional- and shear-waves, further distinguishing the latter between horizontally (SH) and vertically (SV) polarized wavefields. We processed the data by performing a Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves to compute a preliminary one-dimensional shear wave velocity profile. Then, we performed first-break tomography to compute P-, SH- and SV-velocity profiles. Such unusual acquisition allowed us to compute not only basic engineering parameters such as the equivalent shear-wave velocity of the first 30 m of subsurface (VS30) from the SH profiles but also other useful parameters such as the VP/VS and estimate the anisotropy of the medium thanks to the VSV/VSH. Given the level of detail of the results and their engineering value, we conclude that the method of investigation we applied in the two test sites is a valuable tool for characterizing the shallow subsurface. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural-Hazards Risk Assessment for Disaster Mitigation)
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25 pages, 9579 KiB  
Article
Seismic Risk Assessment of Urban Areas by a Hybrid Empirical-Analytical Procedure Based on Peak Ground Acceleration
by Željana Nikolić, Elena Benvenuti and Luka Runjić
Appl. Sci. 2022, 12(7), 3585; https://doi.org/10.3390/app12073585 - 01 Apr 2022
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2047
Abstract
The seismic risk assessment of existing urban areas provides important information for the process of seismic risk reduction in different phases of planning and emergency management. Between different large-scale assessment approaches, a vulnerability index method is often used for the first screening of [...] Read more.
The seismic risk assessment of existing urban areas provides important information for the process of seismic risk reduction in different phases of planning and emergency management. Between different large-scale assessment approaches, a vulnerability index method is often used for the first screening of the buildings and vulnerability classification. However, this method cannot fully predict the effects of a specific seismic action on buildings. This paper fully extends the scale of the settlement and properly upgrades a methodology previously proposed by authors to predict seismic damage and the risk to a restricted number of masonry buildings in the Croatian settlement Kaštel Kambelovac located along the Adriatic coast. The proposed approach is based on a hybrid empirical-analytical procedure that combines seismic vulnerability indices with critical peak ground accelerations for different limit states computed through a non-linear pushover analysis. The procedure’s outcomes are the computation of a relationship linking vulnerability indices to peak ground acceleration for a series of states, corresponding to damage limitation, significant damage, and near collapse. The described methodology is used to estimate seismic risk in terms of damage and the index of seismic risk for selected return periods. The general methodology has allowed a full seismic vulnerability assessment of the whole Croatian settlement of Kaštel Kambelovac. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural-Hazards Risk Assessment for Disaster Mitigation)
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14 pages, 23905 KiB  
Article
A Systematic Revision of the NFIP Claims Hazard Data in Florida for Flood Risk Assessment
by D. W. Shin, Steven Cocke and Baek-Min Kim
Appl. Sci. 2022, 12(7), 3537; https://doi.org/10.3390/app12073537 - 30 Mar 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1595
Abstract
The hazard components of National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims data in Florida were systematically analyzed and revised in the current study. The provided fields in NFIP claims data are not always complete or accurate and are often missing. The authors associated each [...] Read more.
The hazard components of National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims data in Florida were systematically analyzed and revised in the current study. The provided fields in NFIP claims data are not always complete or accurate and are often missing. The authors associated each claim to a proper flood hazard event by updating the provided catastrophe number using the National Hurricane Center HURDAT2 (best track data). The claims with presumably incorrect cause of loss fields were identified and revised by adding a variety of other available information to claims data. These datasets included tropical cyclone events, rainfall maxima, and distances to the nearest coast. The enhanced information assisted in identifying the cause or likelihood of a hazard event or attributing a particular hazard event to a loss claim. The revised NFIP claims data will be intensively used to validate the outcomes from flood hazard (i.e., surge, wave and inland flooding) models and to develop a flood vulnerability model in the forthcoming Florida Public Flood Loss Model (FPFLM). Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural-Hazards Risk Assessment for Disaster Mitigation)
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17 pages, 1671 KiB  
Article
Prediction of Liquefaction-Induced Lateral Displacements Using Gaussian Process Regression
by Mahmood Ahmad, Maaz Amjad, Ramez A. Al-Mansob, Paweł Kamiński, Piotr Olczak, Beenish Jehan Khan and Arnold C. Alguno
Appl. Sci. 2022, 12(4), 1977; https://doi.org/10.3390/app12041977 - 14 Feb 2022
Cited by 13 | Viewed by 2172
Abstract
During severe earthquakes, liquefaction-induced lateral displacement causes significant damage to designed structures. As a result, geotechnical specialists must accurately estimate lateral displacement in liquefaction-prone areas in order to ensure long-term development. This research proposes a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model based on 247 [...] Read more.
During severe earthquakes, liquefaction-induced lateral displacement causes significant damage to designed structures. As a result, geotechnical specialists must accurately estimate lateral displacement in liquefaction-prone areas in order to ensure long-term development. This research proposes a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model based on 247 post liquefaction in-situ free face ground conditions case studies for analyzing liquefaction-induced lateral displacement. The performance of the GPR model is assessed using statistical parameters, including the coefficient of determination, coefficient of correlation, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, root mean square error (RMSE), and ratio of the RMSE to the standard deviation of measured data. The developed GPR model predictive ability is compared to that of three other known models—evolutionary polynomial regression, artificial neural network, and multi-layer regression available in the literature. The results show that the GPR model can accurately learn complicated nonlinear relationships between lateral displacement and its influencing factors. A sensitivity analysis is also presented in this study to assess the effects of input parameters on lateral displacement. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural-Hazards Risk Assessment for Disaster Mitigation)
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22 pages, 10103 KiB  
Article
A PROMETHEE Multiple-Criteria Approach to Combined Seismic and Flood Risk Assessment at the Regional Scale
by Arianna Soldati, Andrea Chiozzi, Željana Nikolić, Carmela Vaccaro and Elena Benvenuti
Appl. Sci. 2022, 12(3), 1527; https://doi.org/10.3390/app12031527 - 31 Jan 2022
Cited by 10 | Viewed by 1919
Abstract
Social vulnerability is deeply affected by the increase in hazardous events such as earthquakes and floods. Such hazards have the potential to greatly affect communities, including in developed countries. Governments and stakeholders must adopt suitable risk reduction strategies. This study is aimed at [...] Read more.
Social vulnerability is deeply affected by the increase in hazardous events such as earthquakes and floods. Such hazards have the potential to greatly affect communities, including in developed countries. Governments and stakeholders must adopt suitable risk reduction strategies. This study is aimed at proposing a qualitative multi-hazard risk analysis methodology in the case of combined seismic and flood risk using PROMETHEE, a Multiple-Criteria Decision Analysis technique. The present case study is a multi-hazard risk assessment of the Ferrara province (Italy). The proposed approach is an original and flexible methodology to qualitatively prioritize urban centers affected by multi-hazard risks at the regional scale. It delivers a useful tool to stakeholders involved in the processes of hazard management and disaster mitigation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural-Hazards Risk Assessment for Disaster Mitigation)
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19 pages, 5928 KiB  
Article
Risk Assessment of Riverine Terraces: The Case of the Chenyulan River Watershed in Nantou County, Taiwan
by Ji-Yuan Lin, Jen-Chih Chao and Yung-Ming Hsu
Appl. Sci. 2022, 12(3), 1375; https://doi.org/10.3390/app12031375 - 27 Jan 2022
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1897
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to establish a method of hazard assessment for the river terraces along the Chenyulan River and use 40 of them as protected objects. Using a geographic information system, the researchers extracted nine parameters for such terraces. These [...] Read more.
The purpose of this study is to establish a method of hazard assessment for the river terraces along the Chenyulan River and use 40 of them as protected objects. Using a geographic information system, the researchers extracted nine parameters for such terraces. These are length to attack shore, distance away from fault, distance from river channel, number of creeks and streams with possibility of debris flows, height above stream level, average slope degree, geology, number of erosion ditches, and distance from landslide area behind. Next, the weightings identified by analytic hierarchy process analysis were used as the basis for grading the various factors affecting river terraces. Hazard assessment for the river terraces then proceeded via totaling of the potential trends of the various factors and the protected objects, as well as comparison of historical disaster conditions and satellite images. The results showed that there were 8 high-risk river terraces, 14 medium–high-risk river terraces, 14 medium–low-risk river terraces and 4 low-risk river terraces. The evaluation of the current conditions of the settlement environment through parameter weighting has a certain accuracy and reference value in reducing the disaster impact of the riverine terrace settlement. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural-Hazards Risk Assessment for Disaster Mitigation)
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17 pages, 4000 KiB  
Article
Quantifying the Occurrence of Multi-Hazards Due to Climate Change
by Diamando Vlachogiannis, Athanasios Sfetsos, Iason Markantonis, Nadia Politi, Stelios Karozis and Nikolaos Gounaris
Appl. Sci. 2022, 12(3), 1218; https://doi.org/10.3390/app12031218 - 24 Jan 2022
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 2626
Abstract
This paper introduces a climatic multi-hazard risk assessment for Greece, as the first-ever attempt to enhance scientific knowledge for the identification and definition of hazards, a critical element of risk-informed decision making. Building on an extensively validated climate database with a very high [...] Read more.
This paper introduces a climatic multi-hazard risk assessment for Greece, as the first-ever attempt to enhance scientific knowledge for the identification and definition of hazards, a critical element of risk-informed decision making. Building on an extensively validated climate database with a very high spatial resolution (5 × 5 km2), a detailed assessment of key climatic hazards is performed that allows for: (a) the analysis of hazard dynamics and their evolution due to climate change and (b) direct comparisons and spatial prioritization across Greece. The high geographical complexity of Greece requires that a large number of diverse hazards (heatwaves—TX, cold spells—TN, torrential rainfall—RR, snowstorms, and windstorms), need to be considered in order to correctly capture the country’s susceptibility to climate extremes. The current key findings include the dominance of cold-temperature extremes in mountainous regions and warm extremes over the coasts and plains. Extreme rainfall has been observed in the eastern mainland coasts and windstorms over Crete and the Aegean and Ionian Seas. Projections of the near future reveal more warm extremes in northern areas becoming more dominant all over the country by the end of the century. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural-Hazards Risk Assessment for Disaster Mitigation)
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17 pages, 3830 KiB  
Article
A Machine Learning Framework for Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment at the Regional Scale in Earthquake and Flood-Prone Areas
by Alessandro Rocchi, Andrea Chiozzi, Marco Nale, Zeljana Nikolic, Fabrizio Riguzzi, Luana Mantovan, Alessandro Gilli and Elena Benvenuti
Appl. Sci. 2022, 12(2), 583; https://doi.org/10.3390/app12020583 - 07 Jan 2022
Cited by 8 | Viewed by 3203
Abstract
Communities are confronted with the rapidly growing impact of disasters, due to many factors that cause an increase in the vulnerability of society combined with an increase in hazardous events such as earthquakes and floods. The possible impacts of such events are large, [...] Read more.
Communities are confronted with the rapidly growing impact of disasters, due to many factors that cause an increase in the vulnerability of society combined with an increase in hazardous events such as earthquakes and floods. The possible impacts of such events are large, also in developed countries, and governments and stakeholders must adopt risk reduction strategies at different levels of management stages of the communities. This study is aimed at proposing a sound qualitative multi-hazard risk analysis methodology for the assessment of combined seismic and hydraulic risk at the regional scale, which can assist governments and stakeholders in decision making and prioritization of interventions. The method is based on the use of machine learning techniques to aggregate large datasets made of many variables different in nature each of which carries information related to specific risk components and clusterize observations. The framework is applied to the case study of the Emilia Romagna region, for which the different municipalities are grouped into four homogeneous clusters ranked in terms of relative levels of combined risk. The proposed approach proves to be robust and delivers a very useful tool for hazard management and disaster mitigation, particularly for multi-hazard modeling at the regional scale. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural-Hazards Risk Assessment for Disaster Mitigation)
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7 pages, 5550 KiB  
Article
Population Bias on Tornado Reports in Europe
by Răzvan Pîrloagă, Dragoş Ene and Bogdan Antonescu
Appl. Sci. 2021, 11(23), 11485; https://doi.org/10.3390/app112311485 - 03 Dec 2021
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2854
Abstract
Tornadoes are associated with damages, injuries, and even fatalities in Europe. Knowing the spatial distribution of tornadoes is essential for developing disaster risk reduction strategies. Unfortunately, there is a population bias on tornado reporting in Europe. To account for this bias, a Bayesian [...] Read more.
Tornadoes are associated with damages, injuries, and even fatalities in Europe. Knowing the spatial distribution of tornadoes is essential for developing disaster risk reduction strategies. Unfortunately, there is a population bias on tornado reporting in Europe. To account for this bias, a Bayesian modeling approach was used based on tornado observations and population density for relatively small regions of Europe. The results indicated that the number of tornadoes could be 53% higher that are currently reported. The largest adjustments produced by the model are for Northern Europe and parts of the Mediterranean regions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural-Hazards Risk Assessment for Disaster Mitigation)
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