Commodities, Volume 2, Issue 2 (June 2023) – 6 articles

The import demand for energy resources, including liquefied natural gas (LNG), has been steadily increasing in the Asia-Pacific region. Australia, the Middle East (Qatar), the Russian Federation, and the U.S. are the major players who compete strategically to capture this ever-growing market for LNG. The objective of this paper is to examine the potential for Canada’s entry into this market as another LNG exporter and what impact that can have on the existing suppliers. Using a game-theoretic LNG export competition model, we explore the conditions under which Canada can make a profitable entry. We also investigate the effect of Canada’s entry on the profitability of the four incumbent exporters. Employing a multi-leader Stackelberg model, we found that Canada’s entry could be a Pareto superior outcome under certain conditions because it benefits all competing firms and consumers. Further, Canada’s entry into the LNG export market always helps the low-cost incumbent firms by increasing their output and profit. However, the high-cost incumbent firms’ output falls, while their profit may increase or decrease depending on the unit cost and market size parameters. With differential export costs between Canada and the U.S., the latter has an incentive to act strategically to affect the entrance of the former. Full article

Understanding long-term agricultural productivity is essential for designing agricultural policies, planning and targeting other economic policies (e.g., industrial policy), and managing agricultural business models. In a developing and oil-rich country such as Azerbaijan, agriculture is among the limited opportunities to diversify oil-based value added and address broad welfare issues, as farmers and agricultural workers account for a large share of total employment and the labor force. However, previous studies have not focused on an empirical assessment of the long-term and subsectoral productivity of crop commodities. Rather, they have used a highly aggregated and short-run perspective, focusing mainly on the impact of the oil sector on agricultural sectors. Here, we applied principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis to identify similarities and differences in the productivity of specific crop commodities (e.g., cotton, tea, grains, tobacco, hay, fruits, and vegetables) between 1950 and 2021. We show that some crops are similar in terms of their variation, growth rates, and transition from the Soviet era to the post-Soviet period. Although the dynamics of change are different for food and non-food crops and for high- and low-productive commodities, it is still possible to narrow down specific subsectors that could reach the same productivity levels. This helps map out the productivity levels of crop commodities over time and across different subsectors, allowing for better policy decisions and resource allocation in the agricultural sector. In addition, we argue about some outlier commodities and their backward status despite extensive government support. Our results provide a common basis for policymakers and businesses to focus specifically on productivity and profitability from an economic standpoint. Full article

This paper investigates the liquidity effect of the U.S. QE on the sovereign yield spreads of commodity-exporting countries by employing the two-stage least squares approach. The key contributions of the paper are in terms of our empirical findings. First, our results show that the U.S. QE has an economically and statistically significant liquidity effect in terms of both the HPW illiquidity measure and the TIPS liquidity premium. This is of policy importance because adjusting for the liquidity premium is a key stage in modeling inflationary expectations. Second, our results show that the U.S. QE reduced the liquidity premium with improved market liquidity and hence reduce sovereign yield spreads of most commodity-exporting countries. This finding is of macroeconomic importance as reduced sovereign yield spreads have been shown to lead to higher real activity and higher credit activity. Full article

The main purpose of this paper is to present a systematic literature review of studies on the determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) published over the period 1987–2022. This paper reviewed 76 studies in 58 peer-reviewed journals. The provocation for this analysis is that the issue of NPLs is attributed to close attention from policymakers and is currently addressed with various measures. The authors synthesize the literature according to the following main boards: macroeconomic factors, bank-specific factors, and industry factors. This study tries to construct the main findings from the numerous studies that are performed concerning NPLs and their determinants. The authors’ motivation is to provide a detailed perspective on NPLs. Hence, this study provides a complete and coherent framework for the researchers to examine the varied NPL literature. Full article

On 15 September 2022, the Ethereum network adopted a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism. We study the impact on the network and competing platforms in a two month event window around the Beacon chain merge. We find that the transition to PoS has reduced energy consumption by 99.98%. Miners have not transformed into validators, and total block reward income (in USD) has fallen by 97%, though transaction fees (in ETH) for Ether have increased nearly 10%. The Herfindahl index for the top 10 is 1009; the network is 19% less concentrated after the merge. Ethereum supply growth has been deflationary since the merge. The time between consecutive blocks is now steady at 12 s and transactions per day are up 7.0%. On Polygon, Matic fees rose but token fees fell. Polygon also slows, processing 3.3% fewer transactions per day. Solana’s fees fall by $0.0003, and transactions per day are down 48%. Stablecoin transfer volumes fall on Ethereum and Polygon, but rise on Solana. Full article