Differentiating Fire Regimes and Their Biophysical Drivers in Central Portugal
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data Collection and Pre-Processing
2.2.1. Fire Regime Parameters
2.2.2. Potential Fire Regime Drivers
2.3. Cluster Analysis
2.4. Classification Tree
3. Results
3.1. Cluster Analysis
3.2. Classification Tree (CT) Model
4. Discussion
4.1. Classification Tree Model Accuracy
4.2. Relations between Fire Regimes and Biophysical Factors
4.2.1. FR1
4.2.2. FR3
4.2.3. FR2
4.2.4. FR4
4.2.5. Biophysical Factors with Uncertain Roles in the CT Model
4.3. Implications to Wildfire Management
- (a)
- Reducing fuel availability through land use planning policies promoting shrubland removal or substitution with less fire prone LULC types (such as agriculture or different types of forest) by landowners.
- (b)
- Reducing ignitions through awareness campaigns or legal constraints to the use of fire in critical areas and times of the year.
- (c)
- Focusing existing early detection and suppression capabilities on extinguishing the frequent wildfires at the earliest possible stage. This possibly implies the capacity for active suppression in several locations at the same time.
- (a)
- (b)
- Focusing early detection and early response capabilities on ensuring that ignitions, although relatively infrequent, are not allowed to develop. This implies quick mobilization of means to an ignition location and the timely allocation of surveillance resources to the more hazardous areas at the beginning of the main fire season.
4.4. Limitations and Uncertainties
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Type | Variable Code | Variable | Temporal Extent | Original Spatial Resolution | Units |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Topography | SLO80 | Slope percentile 80 | n.a. | 25 m | ° |
Climate | RFAJ | Mean cumulative rainfall April–June | 1970–2000 | Approx. 1000 m | mm |
TPJS | Mean monthly temperature July–September | °C | |||
Biomass | NPP | Net primary productivity | 2000–2014 | 500 m | KgC/m2 |
Land use/land cover | AGR | % parish area occupied by agriculture | 1990–2018 | Vector data Minimum mapped area 1 ha | % |
OAK | % parish area occupied by holm-oak and cork-oak forests | ||||
EUC | % parish area occupied by eucalyptus forests | ||||
INV | % parish area occupied by forests of invasive species | 1995–2018 | |||
CON | % parish area occupied by forests of coniferous species other than maritime or stone pine | 1990–2018 | |||
BRD | % parish area occupied by forests of broadleaved species other than holm-oak, cork-oak, and eucalyptus | ||||
SHR | % parish area occupied by brushland and spontaneous herbaceous species | ||||
LULC patch fragmentation | FRAGF | Fragmentation of forest patches | 1995–2018 | Centroids/ha of forest |
Cluster 1 | Cluster 2 | Cluster 3 | Cluster 4 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. of parishes | 450 | 401 | 86 | |||||
Variable | Mean | SD | Mean | SD | Mean | SD | ||
CPAB | 37.6 | 41.0 | 130.1 | 66.6 | 240.7 | 100.0 | ||
AWWF | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.18 | 0.56 | 3.33 | 0.96 | ||
GCI | 94.3 | 2.7 | 84.6 | 5.6 | 74.6 | 6.2 | ||
No. of parishes | 450 | 299 | 86 | 102 | ||||
Variable | Mean | SD | Mean | SD | Mean | SD | Mean | SD |
CPAB | 37.6 | 41.0 | 102.9 | 47.6 | 240.7 | 100.0 | 209.9 | 47.5 |
AWWF | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
GCI | 94.3 | 2.7 | 83.4 | 5.6 | 74.8 | 6.2 | 87.9 | 3.8 |
Observed | Predicted | % Correct | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ||
1 | 369 | 70 | 1 | 10 | 82.0 |
2 | 58 | 209 | 17 | 15 | 69.9 |
3 | 0 | 22 | 61 | 3 | 70.9 |
4 | 17 | 42 | 4 | 39 | 38.2 |
Final tree accuracy | 72.4 | ||||
Cross-validated accuracy | 68.7 |
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Bergonse, R.; Oliveira, S.; Zêzere, J.L.; Moreira, F.; Ribeiro, P.F.; Leal, M.; Santos, J.M.L. Differentiating Fire Regimes and Their Biophysical Drivers in Central Portugal. Fire 2023, 6, 112. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire6030112
Bergonse R, Oliveira S, Zêzere JL, Moreira F, Ribeiro PF, Leal M, Santos JML. Differentiating Fire Regimes and Their Biophysical Drivers in Central Portugal. Fire. 2023; 6(3):112. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire6030112
Chicago/Turabian StyleBergonse, Rafaello, Sandra Oliveira, José Luís Zêzere, Francisco Moreira, Paulo Flores Ribeiro, Miguel Leal, and José Manuel Lima Santos. 2023. "Differentiating Fire Regimes and Their Biophysical Drivers in Central Portugal" Fire 6, no. 3: 112. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire6030112