Environmental Risk Assessment of Wetland Ecosystems Using Bayesian Belief Networks
2. Materials and Methods
- Land use change: advancement and encroachment of agricultural lands into wetland areas; construction of infrastructure (including roads, buildings, thermal power plants, factories, power and oil transmission lines, canals, and drains) in the wetland area. Seven oil and petrochemical pipelines currently run through the wetland. Inside the wildlife refuge, communication roads are being built. Shadgan steel factory is developed in the vicinity of a wetland, where surface water accumulation and flood inundation occur around the factory site due to changes in geological characteristics and groundwater levels. Further, urban development and widening of the Abadan-Ahvaz communication road adjacent to the wetland is another factor causing land use changes around the wetland [17,35,37].
- Water pollution: wastewater discharges from urban and rural communities into the wildlife refuge release 4.42 million cubic meters of polluted water into the wetland area annually. Agricultural effluents into the wetland are about 6.161 million cubic meters, and livestock farm wastewater of approximately 16.5 million cubic meters enters the wetland. The solid waste disposal and landfilling of the cities in the Shadgan catchment exceeds 245 tons per day. Further, pollution from chemical fertilizers, industrial waste, waste from sugarcane development plants, and drainage flows from the development of the irrigation network and fish farming that directly enter the wetland have significant influences on water pollution across SIWs [34,36].
- Sedimentation: The sedimentation and filling of the wetland by the sediments that supply the wetland’s water; the construction of dams upstream, which has increased sedimentation and sediment accumulation .
- Loss of biodiversity: Fish breeding activities in the upstream part of the catchment area have led to the introduction of non-native species that compete with the native species of the wetland and have caused biodiversity issues. Road construction inside the wetland, hunting, and the development of fishing ports are also threatening biodiversity at the wetland [17,37].
- Drought: The average annual rainfall varies from 160 to 900 mm per year in the wetland watershed area. The occurrence of severe drought, especially during the years 2005, 2006, and 2007, has caused the destruction of a large part of the wetland. The maximum temperature varies from 54 °C in July to a minimum of −8 °C in November. A decrease in rainfall and an increase in temperature have consistently occurred over the past 30 years (1990–2020), which has caused an increase in water salinity. The trend of increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall in this region is predicted until 2040 [35,38].
- Reduction of discharge and changes in water flow regime: development of surface water and flood control plans (i.e., storage dams) in the upstream area and extensive irrigation and drainage plans for the upstream lands have led to a reduction of water entering from the main artery of the wetland (the Jarhari River). The flow reduction of the Karun River and the inflow of drainage from the sugarcane development projects, with their high salinity and large volume, have changed the nature of the ecosystem across the freshwater part of the wetland and facilitated salinization and drying [37,38].
3. Modeling and Analysis
4. Results and Discussion
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
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|Risk Factor||Adverse Environmental Effects||Receivers|
|Land use change||All organisms in the soil and aquatic life in wetland|
|Water pollution||All organisms associated with wetland|
|Uncontrolled exploitation||All organisms associated with wetland|
|Sedimentation||All organisms associated with wetland|
|Loss of biodiversity||All organisms in the soil and aquatic life, and humans dependent to wetland|
|Drought||All organisms in the soil and aquatic life|
and humans dependent on wetland
|Changing water regimes||All organisms in the soil and aquatic life, and humans dependent on wetland|
|Percent||Variance of Beliefs|
|Probability of hazard||0.2309||21||0.428597|
|Land use change||0.00001||0.000844||0.0000008|
|Loss of biodiversity||0.00001||0.000752||0.0000007|
|Changing water regimes||0.00001||0.000616||0.0000006|
|Risk Factor||Risk State in BBN||Rating||Management Strategies (Control Measures)|
|Loss of biodiversity||60||40||2|
|Changing water regimes||55||45||3|
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Malekmohammadi, B.; Uvo, C.B.; Moghadam, N.T.; Noori, R.; Abolfathi, S. Environmental Risk Assessment of Wetland Ecosystems Using Bayesian Belief Networks. Hydrology 2023, 10, 16. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology10010016
Malekmohammadi B, Uvo CB, Moghadam NT, Noori R, Abolfathi S. Environmental Risk Assessment of Wetland Ecosystems Using Bayesian Belief Networks. Hydrology. 2023; 10(1):16. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology10010016Chicago/Turabian Style
Malekmohammadi, Bahram, Cintia Bertacchi Uvo, Negar Tayebzadeh Moghadam, Roohollah Noori, and Soroush Abolfathi. 2023. "Environmental Risk Assessment of Wetland Ecosystems Using Bayesian Belief Networks" Hydrology 10, no. 1: 16. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology10010016