Assessing and Forecasting the Long-Term Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Manufacturing Sales in South Africa
2. The Literature Review
3.2. ARIMA/SARIMA Model
3.3. Data Transformation
3.4. Argumented Dicky-Fuller (ADF) Test
3.5. Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE)
3.6. Model Selection and Accuracy Measures
4.1. Descriptive Statistics and Model Identification Processes
4.2. In- and Out-of-Sample Forecasting
4.3. Discussion of Results
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
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|SARIMA (2,1,1)(2,1,1)12 model without drift||−447.83||−428.44||0.0311|
|SARIMA (2,1,2)(2,1,1)12 model without drift||−456.86||−434.7||0.0297|
|SARIMA (2,1,0)(2,1,1)12 model without drift||−442.9||−426.28||0.0320|
|SARIMA (1,1,1)(2,1,1)12 model without drift||−438.19||−421.57||0.0327|
|SARIMA (0,1,1)(2,1,1)12 model without drift||−438.82||−424.97||0.0328|
|SARIMA (1,1,2)(1,0,0)12 model with drift||−426.61||−409.41||0.0412|
|SARIMA (2,1,2)(2,0,0)12 model with drift||−446.91||−423.97||0.0369|
|Standard Error (SE)||Test Statistic||p-Value|
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Makoni, T.; Chikobvu, D. Assessing and Forecasting the Long-Term Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Manufacturing Sales in South Africa. Economies 2023, 11, 158. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11060158
Makoni T, Chikobvu D. Assessing and Forecasting the Long-Term Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Manufacturing Sales in South Africa. Economies. 2023; 11(6):158. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11060158Chicago/Turabian Style
Makoni, Tendai, and Delson Chikobvu. 2023. "Assessing and Forecasting the Long-Term Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Manufacturing Sales in South Africa" Economies 11, no. 6: 158. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11060158