Using Deep Reinforcement Learning with Hierarchical Risk Parity for Portfolio Optimization
- The first, from the financial community, has received great praise and has been used successfully in recent years: Hierarchical Risk Parity (HRP) De Prado (2016) and a variation of it, Hierarchical Equal Risk Contribution (HERC) Raffinot (2018). We use the acronym HC hereon to refer to both of these hierarchical approaches.
- The second one is one of the most advanced machine learning techniques available today: Deep Reinforcement Learning Mnih et al. (2015). It has been used successfully in many domains, from video games to robotics, and has been shown able to learn complex tasks from scratch, without any prior knowledge of the environment. For more details on DRL and its general applications see Li (2017), for DRL in finance see Millea (2021); Mosavi et al. (2020).
- We use HRP and HERC models with much lower covariance estimation periods than used on other markets or than initially designed for Burggraf (2021); De Prado (2016). We use periods as low as 30 and up to 700 h for covariance estimation. These numbers are usually days or even months in the related literature.
- The whole system enables much larger periods for testing, without any retraining. In the literature they usually employ retraining after short periods of testing. In our case the testing periods (or out-of-sample as they are called in the financial community) are as long as the training period or even longer.
- The network architecture and engineering is minimal, as we use a simple feed-forward network with two hidden layers. This makes the whole system very easy to understand and holds the promise for significant enhancements.
2. Related Work
- hierarchical clustering approaches in a series of relatively recent papers. Several works have leveraged the idea of hierarchical clustering which we describe in more detail below.
- (ii) it requires the inversion of the covariance-matrix, which can be ill-conditioned and thus the inversion is susceptible to numerical errors;
- (iii) correlated investments indicate the need for diversification but this correlation is exactly what makes the solutions unstable (this is known as the Markowitz curse).
2.1. Hierarchical Risk Parity
- 1. Computing the dendrogram using hierarchical tree clustering algorithm by using a distance matrix of the asset correlations.
- First we compute the correlation among assets, which produces an matrix we call .
- Then, we convert this to a distance matrix through
- We next devise a new distance matrix which is actually a similarity matrix. It is computed as follows:
- We then start to form clusters as follows:
- We now delete the newly formed cluster assets row and column from the matrix ( and ) and replace them with a single one. Computing distances between this new cluster and the remaining assets can be performed by multiple different criteria, as is the general case with clustering, either single-linkage, average-linkage, etc.
- We repeat the last two steps until we have only one cluster. So we can see this is an agglomerative clustering algorithm. We show its dendrogram (graphical depiction of the hierarchical clustering) on our crypto data in Figure 2.
- 2. Doing matrix seriation. This procedure rearranges data in such a way that larger covariances are closer to the diagonal and that similar values are near. This results in a quasi-diagonal covariance matrix. We show this process on our own crypto dataset Figure 3.
- 3. Recursive bisection. This is the final step which actually assigns weights to the assets using the previous clustering. Looking at the hierarchical tree structure:
- We first set all weights to 1.
- Next, starting from the root, for each cluster we use the following weights to compute the volatilities:This uses the fact that for a diagonal covariance matrix, the inverse-variance allocations are optimal.
- Then for the two branches of each node (a node corresponds to a cluster) we compute the variance: and .
- Finally, we rescale the weights as with and
2.2. Deep Reinforcement Learning
2.3. Model-Based RL
- The interaction with the real environment might be risky, inducing large costs sometimes. Thus having a zero-cost alternative is desirable.
- Having an accurate enough model of the world is necessary for the agent to learn and behave well in the real environment.
- The model is not necessarily a perfect representation of the real world, but it is close enough to be useful.
3. System Architecture
3.1. Performance of Individual HRP Models
3.3. Combining the Models
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
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|Optimal leaf order||True||True|
|Market||Training Set||Testing Set|
|Crypto||22 March 2020 04:00–13 May 2021 14:00||13 May 2021 15:00–1 June 2022 03:00|
|Stocks||17 September 2019 15:30–16 December 2020 12:30||16 December 2020 13:30–4 February 2022 15:30|
|Forex||11 December 2020 01:00–30 September 2021 23:00||10 January 2021 00:00–28 September 2022 06:00|
|Learning rate||grid_search([0.0001, 0.001, 0.01])|
|Value function clip||grid_search([1, 10, 100])|
|Gradient clip||grid_search([0.1, 1, 10])|
|Uses generalized advantage estimation||True|
|Actor learning rate||grid_search([1 , 1 , 1 ])|
|Critic learning rate||grid_search([1 , 1 , 1 ])|
|Network for actor and critic||[1024, 512]|
|Target network update frequency||grid_search([10, 100, 1000])|
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Millea, A.; Edalat, A. Using Deep Reinforcement Learning with Hierarchical Risk Parity for Portfolio Optimization. Int. J. Financial Stud. 2023, 11, 10. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11010010
Millea A, Edalat A. Using Deep Reinforcement Learning with Hierarchical Risk Parity for Portfolio Optimization. International Journal of Financial Studies. 2023; 11(1):10. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11010010Chicago/Turabian Style
Millea, Adrian, and Abbas Edalat. 2023. "Using Deep Reinforcement Learning with Hierarchical Risk Parity for Portfolio Optimization" International Journal of Financial Studies 11, no. 1: 10. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11010010