A Statistical Analysis of Long-Term Grid-Connected PV System Operation in Niš (Serbia) under Temperate Continental Climatic Conditions
2. Materials and Methods
- The relationship between two numerical variables (PV system electricity output and total POA irradiation data), obtained by 10-year measurements, was statistically analyzed using JMP Pro software. For that purpose, a regression analysis, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and post hoc Tukey test were applied. ANOVA is a technique for statistical analysis where datasets are compared to provide and determine their significance. ANOVA also describes complex relationships between variables; in this case, they are POA radiation and PV electricity. As results in ANOVA do not identify which specific differences between pairs of means are significant, it is common to use post hoc tests to investigate differences between multiple groups’ means. Based on obtained results, the conclusion of the grid-connected PV system application’s degradation, efficiency, profitability, and stability during its 10-year operation for a specific climate region was presented.
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Performance Parameters
3.2. Statistical Analysis of PV System Electricity and Total POA Radiation Data during 10 Years of Measurements
- The yearly average values of POA radiation on a south-oriented and optimally inclined plane and total POA radiation on the PV array for a 10-year measurements level are 120.5931 kWh/m2 and 1,999,512 kWh, respectively.
- The total electricity production of the PV system for 10 years of its operations is 22,934.65 kWh.
- The yearly average value of PV system efficiency, for the 10-year measurements level, is 10.49%, which is almost two times less than the given efficiency at STC, and the relative error of yearly average values of PV system efficiency, observed from year to year, range from 0.34% to 6.16%.
- The yearly average value of specific yield factor (Yf) for the 10-year measurements level is 1178.51 kWh/kWp.
- The yearly average value of CF over the 10-year period is 13.45%.
- The yearly average value of PR for the 10-year measurements level is 0.87, and the relative error of yearly average values of PR, observed from year to year, range from 0.97% to 6.83%. On the other hand, the PV system, which uses highly efficient components and is designed appropriately, shows a PR near 90% (“good” performances are >84%). Thus, the experimental results indicate that the behavior of the given PV system over 10 years of operation does not change significantly.
- A high correlation coefficient value allows for the formation of regression model between PV electricity and POA radiation of the PV array. The obtained model is statistically significant and enables prediction better than the simple average.
- ANOVA shows that the mean values of PV electricity are not statistically significant changed over the 10 observed years.
- ANOVA and post hoc Tukey test show that there is a statistically significant difference of POA mean radiation during the months over 10 years and that the highest values of POA radiation are in July and on August. The Tukey test enables the months to be separated within the groups based on difference of POA radiation on PV array. The months within the groups are without statistically significant differences of POA radiation, while the months in various groups differ statistically significantly in terms of POA radiation.
- Based on the POA radiation values and by applying the obtained model, a prediction of the PV system output can be made for similar PV installations.
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
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|Final Yield (h/d)||System Efficiency (%)||PR (%)||CF (%)||Climate||Year/Duration (Years)|
|Morocco||2.4||c-Si, p-Si||4.34||11.67||76.7||18.16||Hot semi-arid subtropical||2018/4|
|Morocco||2.04||c-Si||4.34||11.7||76.7||/||Hot semi-arid subtropical||2015/2|
|Turkey||2.35||c-Si, p-Si||/||13.26||91||/||Humid subtropical||2014/1|
|Source||DF||Sum of Squares||Mean Square||F Ratio|
|Term||Estimate||Std Error||t Ratio||Prob > |t||
|POA radiation on PV array (kWh)||0.0685116||0.003153||21.73||<0.0001|
|Source||DF||Sum of Squares||Mean Square||F Ratio||Prob > F|
|Source||DF||Sum of Squares||Mean Square||F Ratio||Prob > F|
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Todorović, D.D.; Stojanović Krasić, M.; Jovanović, S.; Drljača, B.; Kevkić, T. A Statistical Analysis of Long-Term Grid-Connected PV System Operation in Niš (Serbia) under Temperate Continental Climatic Conditions. Appl. Sci. 2023, 13, 6229. https://doi.org/10.3390/app13106229
Todorović DD, Stojanović Krasić M, Jovanović S, Drljača B, Kevkić T. A Statistical Analysis of Long-Term Grid-Connected PV System Operation in Niš (Serbia) under Temperate Continental Climatic Conditions. Applied Sciences. 2023; 13(10):6229. https://doi.org/10.3390/app13106229Chicago/Turabian Style
Todorović, Dragana D., Marija Stojanović Krasić, Slavica Jovanović, Branko Drljača, and Tijana Kevkić. 2023. "A Statistical Analysis of Long-Term Grid-Connected PV System Operation in Niš (Serbia) under Temperate Continental Climatic Conditions" Applied Sciences 13, no. 10: 6229. https://doi.org/10.3390/app13106229